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I Hate Linux

Monday, May 01, 2017

Revealing the prediction, and an ominous warning

Tomorrow Microsoft is expected to announce a Chromebook competitor running a stripped down version of Windows to target the education market. Even though I will probably buy one of them, the effort will ultimately fail. Before we look too far into the future and it's possible success, let's look a bit to the past.

Two years ago I sent a set of predictions to a well-placed former co-worker within the larger Windows group in an email titled "A (hashed) prediction of the future (expires end of 2016)" which included the hashes mentioned in this post.

The prediction in question said:

Windows 10 Mobile bombs. Windows 10 for PCs continues to languish much like 8.x but at more affordable device price points. Terry is forced out by end of 2016.

Windows 10 Mobile/Phone has in fact bombed, so much so that Microsoft has more or less given up on first party devices for the time being, and will soon even be selling Android based devices at the Microsoft Store. Heck, even I, a long time Windows Phone die-hard was eventually forced to switch not six weeks ago (though I'd been trying to since December unsuccessfully).

Windows 10 has languished. While vastly better than Windows 8 in most ways, even with the free (and at time) forced upgrades, it is ultimately competing with previous versions of itself (like Windows 7 which works just fine for most still using it), none of which drives revenue for the company, nor inspires passion from most users who use or buy PCs/tablets/phones.

With regards to Terry (Myerson) being forced out... I wake up every day flabbergasted that this has not happened yet.

Admittedly, he has a difficult job. Aside from trying to make Windows Phone great again, he was ultimately responsible for de-Sinofsky-izing Windows... the first he utterly failed at, the second... remains an ongoing process.

At the end of the day, there is the issue of "why is Windows important?" and the answer really is "it's not anymore", but more on that for another time.

I am occasionally accused of having an ego, true or not, I am now going to say perhaps the most egotistical things I've ever said:

I tried to stop this. I could have made it better. I could have saved so many of the jobs already lost and the ones to come. I wasn't allowed to.

I talk a lot, I listen a lot, but I also play some cards very close to my chest. While it doesn't always work out for me, it doesn't detract from how painfully often I am right about too many things which most didn't see or believe coming.

Just call me Cassandra.