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I Hate Linux

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

The Self Defeating Prophesy of the Abortion Debate

Preamble: The following contains a simplified theory of mine based on broad generalizations of human behavior as well as the assumption of no other changes occurring. All mathematics are based on linear extrapolation of current numbers and do not change over time. In reality, social, political and technological changes can and will upset this theory; however the underlying concept remains unchanged.

In general...

  • Democrats and other liberals are for abortion

  • Republicans and other conservatives are against abortion

  • Children grow up to have similar political beliefs as their parents

  • Those who have abortions believe that abortion should remain legal


Based on this... I predict that one day Roe v. Wade will be overturned making abortion illegal in this country, and within 2-3 generations it will likely be made legal again.

Don't follow or believe me? Let's consider South Dakota as an example...

According to the media reports on the recently signed abortion ban here in South Dakota, approximately 800 abortions are carried out here every year in a state of just 754,844 people (according to the 2000 census (which is used for all other population figures)).

Let's assume for a moment that if the law was to go into effect and prevented all abortions in this state, woman seeking to terminate their pregnancy did not go out of state to have such a procedure done, nor would they use other means abort the pregnancy and instead bring the child to term...

Over 25 years, with 800 abortions a year no longer occurring, some 20,000 people would be alive who would not have been otherwise, and of them, approximately 5,600 of which would be of voting age. While a relatively small number in being only ~1% of voting age persons, they would be a growing number.

Fast forward another 25 years, to a time where abortion has been illegal and none have been performed in 50 years. The voting block made up of likely Democrats who would have otherwise been aborted has grown to 25,600, or about 4.5% of the total potential voters, a serious number for such a small state as ours where many elections have been decided by a much smaller margin. For example, in the 2002 senate race incumbent Tom Daschle (D) lost to John Thune (R) by only 4,534 votes.

I have been describing numbers that would happen in South Dakota. What about the 1,370,000 some abortions that occur nationally every year? Over a 50 year timeframe, 43,840,000 new Democrat leaning voters would exist.

I'm sure that at some level Democrats like the idea of having nearly 44 million new voters 50 years from now that alone represents 8% of the US population (based on 2000 figures (where the new block is added to the population)). With such strength in numbers, a side-effect of the banning of abortion would be the eventual re-legalization of it throughout the country.

This would mean that banning abortion would lead to a victory for Democrats and those on the pro-abortion side right? Wrong!

With abortion once again legal, the Democrat numbers would no longer rise at the same rate as they had for the previous 50 years because of the 'free' votes they would receive through the outlawing of abortion. Instead they would effectively (and slowly) kill themselves off while Republicans would continue to maintain their numbers.

Assuming no population change other than that would occur through the legalization or criminalization of abortion and extrapolating such rates linearly... in the end, no matter what side of the abortion debate a person is on, in all likelihood their view will eventually win... for a time; and through this victory will lead to their sides defeat and the temporary victory of the other side… until the situation reverses again, creating an oscillation of the legality of abortion in this country.

1 Comments:

  • Except that if abortions were outlawed, many pro-feticides who would have had abortions would put their babies up for adoption instead. Many of those babies would then go to anti-choice families.

    So if Roe vs. Wade were overturned, it might be difficult to re-enact it again.

    By Anonymous DHofmann, at 11:44 AM  

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